Triadvocates Navigator Special Edition: Election Day 2020

November 04,2020 | TRIADVOCATES

November 4, 2020


Roughly 2,675,881 Arizona voters cast ballots in the 2020 election—a 62.5% voter turnout (based on ballots counted as of 1:30 a.m.). As predicted, turnout has shattered records on every level. Below are key highlights of results we have as of this morning, but keep in mind that several hundred thousand votes have yet to be counted in Arizona.


Current winner reflected in bold (results as of 1:30 a.m.)

*Denotes incumbent


Federal Races


U.S. President:

Considered a key swing state, Arizona has 11 electoral votes that could play a crucial role in Biden’s path to 270. As of 1:30 a.m., it’s still too early to call but here’s where things currently stand:

        Biden (D)         51.85%

        *Trump (R)       46.83%


U.S. Senate:

If Kelly hangs on, Arizona will have an all-Democratic U.S. Senate delegation for the first time since 1953. While Kelly outpaced McSally in fundraising and has consistently held a modest lead in head-to-head public opinion polls, Arizonans remember all too well what can happen when you start celebrating with time left on the clock. In 2018, U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally—but the race was so close, it wasn’t officially called until six days after the election. In fact, McSally even flew out to D.C. for the official photo with fellow freshman senators before the race was finally called..


        Kelly (D)          53.41%

        *McSally (R)  46.59%


U.S. Congress:

Arizona’s congressional delegation is currently split between five Democrats and four Republicans. If the latest results hold, the new split will be six Democrats and three Republicans. This is where things stand:


CD 1

        *O’Halleran (D)         52.37%

        Shedd (R)                   47.63%


CD 2

        *Kirkpatrick (D)       56.97%

        Martin  (R)                 43.03%


CD 3

        *Grijalva (D)            66.01%

        Wood (R)                   33.99%


CD 4

        *Gosar (R)                67.65%

     DiSanto (D)             32.35%


CD 5

        *Biggs (R)              55.94%

        Greene (D)               44.06%


CD 6

        Tipirneni (D)           51.68%

        *Schweikert (R)        48.32%


CD 7

        *Gallego (D)           77.63%

        Barnett (R)               22.37%


CD 8

        *Lesko (R)             56.81%

        Muscato (D)            43.19%


CD 9

        *Stanton (D)        64.61%

        Giles (R)                35.39%



Statewide Races


Arizona Corporation Commission:

As a refresher, the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) sets rates and policies for electric, gas and water utilities. The five statewide elected officials on the commission also oversee railroad crossings, pipeline safety and securities. Three of those five seats are on the ballot this year and, as of 1:30 a.m., two Democrats and one Republican are leading in the six-way race, although the margins between candidates is very small.

The current makeup of the ACC is four Republicans and one Democrat. If the latest results hold, the new split could be three Republicans and two Democrats.  

Tovar (D)                            18.19%

*Marquez Peterson (R)      16.76%

O'Connor (R)                       16.55%

Mundell (D)                          16.49%

Stanfield (D)                         16.06%

Sloan (R)                              15.96%



State Legislative Races


Arizona Senate:

The current split in the Senate is 17 Republicans and 13 Democrats. If the latest results hold, Democrats could flip the chamber, with margins as wide as 19 Democrats and 11 Republicans.

These are the races that remain too close to call but will be critical in determining whether Democrats are successful in picking up enough seats to gain control:

LD 6

        Rogers (R)                   53.03%

        French (D)                    46.97%


LD 11

        *Leach  (R)                 53.05%

        Mendoza (D)                46.95%


LD 17

        Kurdoglu (D)              50.30%

        *Mesnard (R)               49.70%


LD 20

        Ervin (D)                    51.19%

        *Boyer (R)                  48.81%


LD 28

        Marsh (D)                  52.96%

        *Brophy McGee (R)     47.04%



Arizona House of Representatives:

The current split in the House is 31 Republicans and 29 Democrats. If the latest results hold, Democrats could flip the chamber, with margins as wide as 33 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

These are the races that remain too close to call but will be critical in determining which party controls the House (voters select two candidates to represent the district in the House).


LD 4

        *Fernandez (D)         40.5%

        John (R)                    29.75% (24,197)

        *Peten (D)                 29.75% (24,191)


LD 6

        *Blackman (R)         28.09%

        Evans (D)                 26.25%

        Barton (R)                 25.73%

        Babbott (I)                19.94%


LD 8

        *Cook (R)                 35.01%

        Pratt (R)                   34.15%

        Girard (D)                30.83%


LD 11

        *Roberts (R)            34.23%

        *Finchem (R)           33.83%

        Perez (D)                 31.94%


LD 15

        Kaiser (R)                   35.37%

        Wilmeth (R)                32.61%

        Dybvig-Pawelko (D)     32.02%


LD 20

        Schwiebert (D)          37.14%

        *Bolick (R)                 32.19%

        *Kern (R)                    30.67%


LD 21

        Pingerelli (R)             35.19%

        Knecht (D)                 32.51%

        *Payne (R)                  32.30%



Ballot Propositions


Proposition 207 – Smart and Safe Arizona Act

Seeks to legalize the recreational use of marijuana, allowing adults (21+) to possess as much as an ounce of marijuana, and proposes a 16% excise tax (the same as cigarettes and alcohol), with new revenues directed mostly toward community colleges and public safety. Also requires the Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS) to establish recreational marijuana regulations on or before June 1, 2021.You can find the full text here.

YES   59.73%

NO     40.27%


Proposition 208 – Invest in Education Act

The official legal spiel: Creates a 3.5% tax surcharge on incomes of more than $250,000 for individual filers and $500,000 for couples, with the revenue going to fund K-12 schools. Similar to what educators proposed two years ago, this version of the “Invest in Ed” measure would raise an estimated $940 million annually for public education. You can find the full text here.

YES   53.10%

NO     46.9%



Keep an eye out for a follow-up edition of The Navigator, as we’ll be providing updates as results continue to roll in, and will also offer a more in-depth analysis once outcomes become more concrete.


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