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2020 Arizona Primary Election:
It's not over 'til it's over...but we may as well speculate.
Roughly 85,000 votes have yet to be counted as election officials process the highest number of ballots cast in an Arizona primary. While a handful of races are close enough to be significantly impacted by the remaining votes, we have a pretty good idea of what most match-ups will look like in November.
Here’s a rundown of the most contentious legislative races, the biggest upsets and some interesting takeaways from the Arizona primary (as of 5 p.m. today):
LD 15 (Scottsdale)
Perhaps the most heated legislative primary in Maricopa County remains too close to call, as conservative Rep. Nancy Barto leads Sen. Heather Carter by roughly 950 votes in LD 15. Carter is among the Senate’s more moderate Republicans, while Barto’s views on vaccines and transgender rights make her one of the most conservative members of the Legislature. The winner of this primary election takes the Senate seat as no other party ran a candidate in the district.
While the focus in LD 15 has been primarily on the heated Senate race, the district has two open seats in the House (due to vacancies created by Rep. Nancy Barto, who’s attempting to swap chambers by ousting Sen. Heather Carter, and Rep. John Allen, who’s running for Maricopa County Treasurer). We’ll have two political newcomers representing LD15 in the House—Steve Kaiser, an army veteran who now runs a junk hauling franchise, and Justin Wilmeth, a former House staffer and GOP campaign operative, prevailed yesterday. They’ll face Democratic opposition from Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko in November, but are expected to win given the district’s strong Republican voter base.
LD 6 (Northern Arizona)
In one of the biggest upsets of the night, Wendy Rogers ousted incumbent Sen. Sylvia Allen in the Republican primary. Democrats are eyeing LD 6 as a possible pick-up in the general election (Dems came within 2 percentage points of winning the district in 2018), and it has long been considered one of the most crucial districts as Republicans fight to maintain control of the state Senate. The Democratic nominee, Felicia French, will be a very strong contender, especially given that her campaign's war chest more than doubles what Rogers has been able to raise. Oh, and if the name "Wendy Rogers" sounds familiar, it’s because it is...she has made multiple runs for Congress and the Legislature.
LD 23 (Scottsdale)
In Scottsdale, voters backed Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita for another term in the Senate. While her primary challenger, lawyer Alexander Kolodin, focused his campaign on his opponent’s scandals, Ugenti-Rita handily won the GOP nomination.
On the House side, it appears that incumbent Rep. Jay Lawrence will not be returning to the Capitol. Lawrence, a conservative radio host and longtime fixture of the local political scene, continues to trail behind newcomer Joseph Chaplik, who owns a commercial real estate business and campaigned on a “conservative, business approach with common sense policies.” Another term is all but certain for incumbent Republican Rep. John Kavanagh, who continues to hold a strong lead.
LD 8 (Globe, Eloy, Casa Grande)
Despite having been the subject of an ethics investigation earlier this year, Rep. David Cook easily won the Republican nomination for the LD 8 race in the House. In what remains the closest legislative race, newcomer Neal Carter is leading state Sen. Frank Pratt by just 22 votes. The top two GOP candidates will face Democrat Sharon Girard in the general election.
LD 27 (South Phoenix)
In South Phoenix, former legislator Catherine Miranda attempted to make a comeback, challenging LD 27 incumbent Reps. Reginald Bolding and Diego Rodriguez. Miranda, who endorsed Gov. Doug Ducey and is often at odds with her party on issues like reproductive rights, failed to lock down the votes needed to oust Bolding and Rodriguez.
LD 26 (Tempe)
In Tempe, Sen. Juan Mendez and state Rep. Athena Salman teamed up with political newcomer and paramedic Melody Hernandez to form a slate they dubbed the “Millennial Clean Team”—a publicly financed, left-wing platform. Despite facing formidable primary opponents backed by the business community, Mendez and Salman received strong support from voters. The husband-and-wife legislative duo will both advance to the general election. However, things aren't so certain for the third member of their team. Hernandez currently leads Debbie Nez-Manual by only 261 votes, so this race is still too close to call. The top two vote-getters (between Salman, Hernandez and Nez-Manuel) will face Bill Loughrige and Seth “Marcus” Sifuentes in the general election to represent LD 26 in the House, while Mendez will battle Republican Jae Chin for the Senate seat.
LD 25 (Mesa)
In Mesa, Speaker Rusty Bowers and Rep. Michelle Udall easily secured the GOP nomination for a return to the House representing LD 25—despite a challenge from Kathy Pearce, sister of recalled legislator Russell Pearce.
Here’s where things stand in each legislative race as of 5 p.m. today:
(**) Denotes incumbent
Candidates in blue will advance to general election (results as of 5 p.m. today)
Candidates in red are still too close to call (results as of 5 p.m. today)
LD 1
Senate
Karen Fann** – R
Gilbert Carrillo – D
House
Selena Bliss – R
Judy Burges – R
Ed Cocchiola – R
Quang Nguyen – R
Steven Sensmeier – R
Judy Stahl – D
LD 2
Senate
Rosanna Gabaldón – D (currently serving in the House)
Mark Workman – R
House
Andrea Dalessandro – D (currently serving in the Senate)
Daniel Hernandez** – D
Luis Parra – D
William “Billy” Peard – D
Deborah McEwen – R
LD 3
Senate
Sally Ann Gonzales** – D
House
Andres Cano** – D
Alma Hernandez** – D
Javier Soto – D
LD 4
Senate
Lisa Otondo** – D
Travis Angry – R
House
Charlene Fernandez** – D
Geraldine Peten** – D
Joel John – R
LD 5
Senate
Sonny Borelli** – R
House
Leo Biasiucci** – R
Regina Cobb** – R
LD 6
Senate
Sylvia Allen** – R
Wendy Rogers – R
Felicia French – D
House
Walt Blackman** – R
Brenda Barton – R
Art Babbott – I
Coral Evans – D
LD 7
Senate
Jamescita Peshlakai** – D
House
Arlando Teller** – D
Myron Tsosie** – D
Jim Parks – R
David Peelman – R
LD 8
Senate
T.J. Shope – R (currently serving in the House)
Barbara McGuire – D
House
David Cook** – R
Frank Pratt – R (currently serving in the Senate)
Neal Carter – R
Sharon Girard – D
LD 9
Senate
Victoria Steele** – D
House
Randy Friese** – D
Pamela Powers Hannley** – D
Brendan Lyons – R
LD 10
Senate
Kirsten Engel – D (currently serving in the House)
Justine Wadsack – R
House
Domingo DeGrazia** – D
Stephanie Stahl Hamilton – D
Paul Stapleton-Smith – D
Mabelle Gummere – R
Michael Hicks – R
LD 11
Senate
Vince Leach** – R
JoAnna Mendoza – D
House
Linda Patterson – D
Mark Finchem** – R
Bret Roberts** – R
Felipe R. Perez – D
LD 12
Senate
Warren Petersen – R (currently serving in the House)
Lynsey Robinson – D
House
Travis Grantham** – R
Jake Hoffman – R
LD 13
Senate
Sine Kerr** – R
House
Tim Dunn** – R
Joanne Osborne** – R
Steve Montenegro – R
Mariana Sandoval – D
LD 14
Senate
David Gowan** – R
Bob Karp – D
House
Becky Nutt** – R
Gail Griffin** – R
Kimberly “Kim” Beach-Moschetti – D
Ronnie Maestas-Condos – D
LD 15
Senate
Heather Carter** – R
Nancy Barto – R (currently serving in the House)
House
Jarret Hamstreet – R
Steve Kaiser – R
Justin Wilmeth – R
Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko – D
LD 16
Senate
Kelly Townsend – R (currently serving in the House)
House
John Fillmore** – R
Lisa Godzich – R
Forest J. Moriarty – R
Jacqueline Parker – R
LD 17
Senate
J.D. Mesnard** – R
Allan “A.J.” Kurdoglu – D
House
Jeff Weninger** – R
Jennifer Pawlik** – D
Liz Harris – R
LD 18
Senate
Sean Bowie** – D
Suzanne Sharer – R
House
Mitzi Epstein** – D
Jennifer Jermaine** – D
Bob Robson – R
LD 19
Senate
Lupe Contreras** – D
House
Diego Espinoza** – D
Lorenzo Sierra** – D
Leezah Sun – D
LD 20
Senate
Paul Boyer** – R
Douglas Ervin – D
House
Shawnna Bolick** – R
Anthony Kern** – R
Judy Schwiebert – D
LD 21
Senate
Rick Gray** – R
Brian Whitman – D
Ryan Elridge – R (write-in candidate)
House
Kevin Payne** – R
Randy Miller – R
Beverly Pingerelli – R
Kathy Knecht – D
LD 22
Senate
David Livingston** – R
Van DiCarlo – R
Hop Nguyen – R
Sarah Tyree – D
House
Frank Carroll** – R
Ben Toma** – R
Wendy Garcia – D
Mary “Kathleen” Honne – D
LD 23
Senate
Michelle Ugenti-Rita** – R
Alexander Kolodin – R
Seth Blattman – D
House
John Kavanagh** – R
Jay Lawrence** – R
Joseph Chaplik – R
Eric Kurland – D
LD 24
Senate
Lela Alston** – D
Ryan Starzyk – D
House
Jennifer Longdon** – D
Amish Shah** – D
LD 25
Senate
Tyler Pace** – R
Paul Weigel – D
House
Rusty Bowers** – R
Michelle Udall** – R
Kathy Pearce – R
Suzanne Hug – D
LD 26
Senate
Juan Mendez** – D
Jana Lynn Granillo – D
Jae Chin – R
House
Athena Salman** – D
Melody Hernandez – D
Debbie Nez-Manuel – D
Patrick Morales – D
Bill Loughrige – R
Seth “Marcus” Sifuentes – R
LD 27
Senate
Rebecca Rios** – D
Garland Shreves – R
House
Reginald Bolding** – D
Diego Rodriguez** – D
Catherine Miranda – D
Tatiana Peña – R
LD 28
Senate
Kate Brophy McGee** – R
Christine Porter Marsh – D
House
Kelli Butler** – D
Aaron Lieberman** – D
Kenneth R. “Ken” Bowers Jr. – R
Jana Jackson – R
LD 29
Senate
Martín Quezada** – D
John Wilson – R
House
Richard Andrade** – D
César Chávez** – D
Teddy Castro – D
Billy Bragg – R
Helen Fokszanskyi-Conti – R
Alysia “Ariesuptop” McMillan – R
LD 30
Senate
Tony Navarrete** – D
House
Robert Meza** – D
Raquel Terán** – D
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