Triadvocates Navigator (September 16, 2026)

We’re 48 days to Election Day.

With the primary dust finally settled, Arizona’s November ballot is set. From a handful of legislative races that could reshape the balance of power at the Capitol to two closely watched congressional contests, a brand-new lieutenant governor role and a lineup of statewide ballot measures, here’s our rundown of what we’ll be watching between now and November 3.

The Road to 31 & 16

Republicans currently hold a 17-13 majority in the Senate and 33-27 majority in the House, meaning Democrats would need to net two Senate seats to force a 15-15 tie and three to take control. In the House, a three-seat gain would produce a 30-30 tie; four would flip the chamber. Arizona Democrats have not controlled the Senate since 1991 or the House since 1965.

In other words, control of the Legislature could come down to a relatively small number of neighborhoods across the state.

Democrats have identified seven Arizona legislative districts—LDs 2, 4, 9, 13, 16, 17 and 23—as targets this year, largely the same map Arizona politicos have been circling in red for months. But these are not seven versions of the same race: some are true purple districts, some lean clearly toward one party on paper, and a couple have developed a habit of ignoring what voter-registration numbers suggest.

LD 2 – North Phoenix

If you're looking for a traditional swing district, start here. Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick faces Democrat Amelia Gallitano. On the House side, Democratic Rep. Stephanie Simacek and Republican Rep. Justin Wilmeth are both back on the ballot, joined by Republican Paul Carver. Simacek was the top House vote-getter in 2024.

Here's the number that makes LD 2 interesting: the district has roughly 45,800 Republicans, 34,800 Democrats and 47,200 voters with no party designation. Translation: neither party can simply turn out its base and call it a day. Candidates in this district have distanced themselves from national ties that typically rely on base-only rhetoric and instead have pivoted toward universal, practical issues that resonate with moderates and unaffiliated voters.

LD 4 – Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, North Phoenix

LD 4 has become something of Arizona's political pendulum. Democrats held two of the three legislative seats after 2022; Republicans swept all three in 2024.

This time around, Republican Sen. Carine Werner faces former Democratic Rep. Aaron Lieberman, while Reps. Matt Gress and Pamela Carter face Democrats Karen Gresham and Tammy Caputi for the two House seats. Werner defeated then-Sen. Christine Marsh by just under four points in 2024, while the closest House contest was decided by roughly a point.

LD 9 – West Mesa

LD 9 is the reverse of LD 4: Democrats currently hold all three legislative seats even though Republicans actually have a slight voter-registration advantage.

Sen. Kiana Sears—who was appointed after Eva Burch resigned in 2025—faces Republican Bridget Fitzgibbons. In the House, Democratic Rep. Lorena Austin and Jacob Martinez are running, with Republican Brad Bettencourt seeking a seat. The Independent Redistricting Commission gives Democrats only a 2.6-point advantage, despite Republicans having more registered voters. In other words, while Democrats are trying to gain seats elsewhere, they also have some defending to do.

LD 13 – Chandler

This one may have the most moving pieces.

Republicans swept LD 13 in 2024, but none of the current House members will be running for those seats in November. Rep. Julie Willoughby is moving over to seek termed-out Sen. J.D. Mesnard's Senate seat against Democrat Kristie O'Brien. Meanwhile, Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke and Janet Weninger—the wife of current Rep. Jeff Weninger—face Democrats Rockee Armstrong and Jacob Weinberg for the two open House seats.

The district's underlying partisan performance is about as close as it gets: the Independent Redistricting Commission puts the Republican advantage at roughly 1.5 points.

No incumbents in the House, four candidates, and a nearly evenly divided district. This one will get plenty of attention—and money—between now and November.

LD 16 – Pinal County, Casa Grande

LD 16 doesn't get quite as much attention as the suburban Maricopa County districts, but Democrats have put it on the board.

Republican Reps. Teresa Martinez and Chris Lopez face Democrat Julia Romero Gusse. This is another example of the Democratic single-shot strategy: rather than running two House candidates and potentially splitting Democratic votes, the party is running one candidate for the two available seats. Former Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman came within roughly 2.5 points of keeping a seat here in 2024.

The Senate side is a different story. Republican Sen. T.J. Shope won by about 12 points in 2024 and faces Democrat Elaine Aldrete this year. Tellingly, national Democrats included LD16 in their House targets but not their Senate targets.

LD 17 – Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana

On paper, LD 17 isn't supposed to be one of Arizona's closest districts. Republicans enjoy a sizable underlying advantage.

Then 2024 happened.

Democrat Kevin Volk won a House seat despite the district's Republican lean, while the Senate race between Republican Vince Leach and the late John McLean was decided by only about two points. This year, Volk is running alongside Democrat Holly Lyon against Republican Rep. Rachel Keshel and John Winchester. The open Senate contest features Republican Chris King and Democrat Edgar Soto.

LD 17 will therefore answer an interesting question: was 2024 an isolated candidate-driven result, or has this formerly Republican-leaning district become more competitive than its registration numbers suggest?

LD 23 – Yuma, Southwest Arizona

And then there is LD 23, which may be the strangest district on the map.

Democrats hold a substantial advantage in the district's underlying partisan performance—roughly 17 points according to the Independent Redistricting Commission—yet Republican Rep. Michele Peña has won here twice and was the top House vote-getter in 2024.

This year, Peña and Republican Gary Garcia Snyder face Democratic Rep. Mariana Sandoval and Emilia Cortez for the House. The Senate race pits Democrat Brian Fernandez against Republican Michelle Altherr.

If you're looking for a reminder that candidate quality, local relationships and turnout can occasionally scramble Arizona's neatly drawn partisan maps, LD 23 is Exhibit A.

Meanwhile, in Congress...

CD 1 – Scottsdale, Northeast Valley – Open Seat

For the first time in 15 years, David Schweikert will not be on the CD 1 ballot, creating an open-seat race between Democrat Amish Shah, Republican Jay Feely and Libertarian Monica Alponte.

If you follow Arizona politics, Shah should sound familiar: he was the Democratic nominee against Schweikert in 2024, narrowly losing 51.9%-48.1%. Feely, meanwhile, is likely familiar for an entirely different reason—the former Arizona Cardinals kicker and longtime NFL broadcaster won the crowded Republican primary in July.

The district itself remains politically mixed. Donald Trump carried it by about three points in 2024, but Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego also carried the district that year.

CD 6 – Tucson, Southeast Arizona – Ciscomani vs. Mendoza

Incumbent Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in southern Arizona's CD6, another district that has repeatedly produced close elections.

Polling shows Mendoza with a razor-thin edge over Ciscomani, which is consistent with fundraising. Through the latest reported period, Mendoza had raised roughly $7.35 million and Ciscomani about $6.17 million, while Ciscomani held more cash on hand.

Expect to see plenty of ads for this race between now and November.

Governor: Now With A Plus-One

For the first time in state history, Arizonans will elect a Governor and Lieutenant Governor together on the same ticket.

You may remember that voters approved Proposition 131 back in 2022 with about 55% of the vote, creating the new office beginning with this election. The lieutenant governor replaces the Secretary of State as first in line to succeed the governor. And unlike some states where the job is largely ceremonial, Arizona law requires the governor to appoint the lieutenant governor as chief of staff, director of the Department of Administration, or to another position the governor is authorized to fill.

Gov. Katie Hobbs selected former Mesa Mayor John Giles, a longtime Republican who changed his registration to independent earlier this year. Giles endorsed Hobbs in 2022 and has backed Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections. Hobbs' campaign has explicitly framed the pairing around bipartisanship and appealing across party lines.

Republican nominee Andy Biggs selected former Sen. Sine (pronounced “SEEN-uh”) Kerr, a former Senate Majority Whip and Buckeye dairy farmer who represented the West Valley for seven years before joining the Trump administration's Farm Service Agency. Kerr brings considerable state legislative and agriculture experience to the ticket, particularly on rural and water issues.

In other words, the two tickets look fairly different by design: Hobbs added a former Republican municipal executive from the East Valley; Biggs added a former Republican legislative leader with deep rural and ag ties.

The other wrinkle? We don't actually know yet how consequential Arizona's lieutenant governor will be in practice. The statute gives the governor considerable latitude in deciding what job the lieutenant governor will perform, so the first administration to use the office will essentially help establish the precedent.

Recent public polling has shown Hobbs ahead of Biggs, although the size of that lead varies considerably depending on the pollster. August surveys produced spreads ranging from the low single digits to double digits, making the next round of polling worth watching as voters become more familiar with the post-primary matchup.

Other Statewide Races on the Radar

• Attorney General: Incumbent Kris Mayes faces Senate President Warren Petersen. If anyone needs a reminder not to dismiss the AG race as down-ballot noise, Mayes won the office in 2022 by 280 votes after a recount. August polling in this year's matchup has shown Mayes ahead, but by margins ranging from roughly one to eight points depending on the survey.
• Secretary of State: Incumbent Adrian Fontes faces Republican state Rep. Alex Kolodin, who defeated former GOP Chair Gina Swoboda in the primary. Several August polls showed Fontes ahead, although some included large undecided blocs.
• Superintendent of Public Instruction: State Treasurer Kimberly Yee defeated incumbent Tom Horne in the Republican primary and now faces Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz, a former Glendale Community College president.
• State Treasurer: With Yee termed out of her current job and running for Superintendent, this is an open race between Republican Elijah Norton and Democrat Nick Mansour.
• Corporation Commission: Two seats are up this year. Republican incumbent Kevin Thompson and former Rep. Ralph Heap face Democrats Jonathon Hill and Clara Pratte. As always, this is one of those races that gets relatively little attention for an office that makes enormously consequential decisions about Arizona utility rates and energy policy.

For those interested in getting into the nitty-gritty, we’ve put together a district-by-district breakdown of every legislative, statewide, and congressional race on the November ballot, as well as an overview of the ballot propositions voters will consider.

We've also put together an analysis of the various scenarios that could determine the makeup of the House and Senate next year.

You’ve Got Mail (Ballots)

After months of legal back-and-forth over proposed federal changes to mail voting, Arizona voters finally have some clarity: for the November election, nothing is changing.

The U.S. Supreme Court this week kept in place a lower-court order blocking new U.S. Postal Service requirements that could have allowed the Postal Service to reject ballot mailings that did not comply with a new federal voter-list verification system and ballot-envelope standards. The rules stemmed from a March executive order from President Trump and had prompted challenges from states and voting-rights organizations.

The practical takeaway for Arizona voters is much simpler than the months of litigation that got us here: Arizona’s existing vote-by-mail process remains in place for the 2026 election. Voters on the Active Early Voting List will continue to receive their ballots through the mail as usual.

And Don't Forget the Ballot Propositions...

If you followed our end-of-session update, you may remember that lawmakers spent the final hours at the Capitol sending a flurry of measures to the November ballot. After a summer of legal challenges, however, the list has gotten considerably shorter.

Arizona voters will now weigh in on eight statewide propositions, covering everything from voter ID and photo radar to food taxes and school spending. Here's the overview:

• Prop. 141 – Vehicle Mileage Taxes: Would amend the Arizona Constitution to prohibit state and local governments from imposing taxes or fees based on the number of miles a vehicle travels, as well as certain programs that monitor or limit vehicle mileage.
• Prop. 142 – Preferential Treatment/DEI: Would expand Arizona's existing constitutional prohibition on preferential treatment or discrimination by the state, including new restrictions involving certain race- or ethnicity-based DEI requirements and the use of public money.
• Prop. 144 – Election Requirements: Would make several changes to Arizona election law, including requiring government-issued identification before voting—including by mail—affirming citizenship requirements, restricting foreign-national spending in elections and guaranteeing an Election Day option to have a ballot tabulated on-site. The changes would take effect beginning with the 2028 elections.
• Prop. 316 – Food Taxes: Would cap municipal transaction privilege taxes on food at 2% and require voter approval before a city or town could increase its rate.
• Prop. 317 – Drug Cartels: Would designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations under state law and direct the Arizona Department of Homeland Security to use its authority to address cartel-related threats.
• Prop. 318 – Student Athletics: Would place provisions in the Arizona Constitution governing participation in sex-specific school sports and use of certain athletic facilities based on biological sex.
• Prop. 319 – Photo Radar: Would generally prohibit state and local governments from using photo-enforcement systems. Communities with existing systems could continue them under specified circumstances with voter approval.
• Prop. 320 – School Spending: Would require certain larger school districts to spend at least 60% of their operating budgets on direct instructional expenses.

For those interested in some extracurricular homework, you can find pro and con arguments for each proposition, among other things, in the Arizona Secretary of State's Publicity Pamphlet.

Oh, and remember all that ESA drama? After all the late-night maneuvering over Empowerment Scholarship Accounts during the final hours of the legislative session, here's the plot twist: there will be no ESA measure on the November ballot.

The Legislature's Prop. 145, which sought to constitutionally protect ESA funds for military families while also affecting conflicting future laws or voter-approved measures, was struck from the ballot after the Arizona Supreme Court unanimously upheld a ruling that it violated the Constitution's single-subject rule. Meanwhile, the competing citizen initiative spearheaded by the Arizona Education Association, Prop. 212 – the Protect Education Act, also failed to make the ballot after litigation over whether supporters had submitted enough valid petition signatures.

And now the calendar starts moving quickly: voter registration closes October 5, early ballots hit mailboxes October 7, and Election Day is November 3. Keep an eye out for upcoming editions of The Navigator.