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The latest drop this evening includes a chunk of returns from Maricopa County, which broke for Republicans. There are still an estimated 472,000 votes left to count in Maricopa County, with another 308,000 or so left to count across all other counties (quick math: we’ve got just over 780,000 total votes left to count in Arizona). We expected tabulation to take longer in the state’s most populous county for several reasons, one of which being the two-page ballot (thanks to a large number of legislative referrals and judicial retentions). This is the first time in nearly 20 years that ballots stretched to a second page, which is taking poll workers more time to process. Also responsible for delays is a new law requiring poll workers to count the number of “late-earlies” (mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places on Election Day) prior to leaving their sites.
Here’s the latest, as of 8 p.m.:
- U.S. President: Trump increases his lead over Harris, which now exceeds 155,000
- U.S. Senate: Gallego still holds a sizeable but narrowing lead over Lake (she now trails by roughly 43,800)
- CD 1: Schweikert (R; incumbent) now leads Shah (D) by more than 13,000 votes
- CD 6: Engel (D) came back from behind with the latest drop and now leads Ciscomani (R; incumbent) by a razor-thin 209 votes
- Maricopa County Board of Supervisors: Brophy McGee (R), who was trailing Valenzuela (D) until the latest drop, now leads by roughly 1,500 votes
In terms of state legislative races, Democrats’ hopes of flipping the Senate appear to be dwindling with every ballot drop. Marsh (D; incumbent) now trails Werner (R) in LD 4 and Schwiebert (D) now trails Bolick (R; incumbent) in LD 2. However, they could pick up a seat in LD 17, where McLean (D) leads Leach (R) by roughly 1,300 votes. It is far too early to make predictions with much confidence, but Republicans could be on track to pick up several seats in the House, which would give them a safe buffer in comparison to the current 31-29 split.
For those of you tracking local races, here’s a quick update:
- Phoenix Mayor: Gallego (61.82%) v. Evans (38.18%) – Evans has conceded
- Phoenix City Council (District 7): Hernandez (52.66%) v. Quiñonez (20.63%) – Quiñonez has conceded
- Scottsdale Mayor: Borowsky (54.24%) v. Ortega 45.76%) – Ortega has conceded
- Mesa Mayor: Freeman (52.99%) v. Smith (47.01%)
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