November 6, 2024

Early returns showed Democrats poised to pick up several key seats up and down the ballot, however, those leads have since dwindled. Earlier this evening, Maricopa County released the latest batch of results, this one comprised of mail-in ballots that largely leaned right. While Republicans saw gains in this drop, keep in mind that the county has roughly 730,000 ballots left to count (that’s in addition to the 359,000 ballots left to count across the other fourteen counties).

For those who enjoy a good sports analogy, we haven’t even hit the seventh inning stretch yet. It’s too early to confidently speculate, but we can at least share the numbers we’re working with. Here’s where things stand (as of 9 p.m.):

• U.S. President: Trump extends his lead over Harris by 10,000
• U.S. Senate: Gallego (D) increases his lead by several hundred; Lake (R) now trails by nearly 60,000
• CD 1: Schweikert (R; incumbent), who was trailing Shah (D) by one percentage point in the first batch of results yesterday, now leads by almost 8,000
• CD 6: Ciscomani (R; incumbent) picked up ground overnight and now leads Engel (D) by a razor-thin 770 votes
• Prop. 139: The abortion measure is on track to pass with almost 62% of the vote
• Maricopa County Attorney: Mitchell, (R; incumbent) now leads Wooten (D) with 54.62% of the vote
• Maricopa County Sherriff: Sheridan (R) is leading Kamp (D) by 97,000 votes; Kamp has conceded
• Maricopa County Recorder: Heap (R) is leading Stringham (D) by 60,000 votes; Stringham has conceded

With so many ballots left to count in Maricopa County, most competitive state legislative races remain too close to call. As results roll in, all eyes will be on the races in seven swing districts that could determine whether Republicans maintain control over each chamber (they currently hold a 31-29 majority in the House and a 16-14 majority in the Senate). These are the legislative races to watch, all of which remain too close to call:

LD 2, Senate – Possible D pick-up

LD 2, House – Possible R pick-up

LD 4, Senate – Possible R pick-up

LD 4, House – Possible D pick-up

LD 9, Senate – Possible R pick-up

LD 9, House – Possible R pick-up

LD 13, Senate – Possible D pick-up

LD 13, House – Possible R pick-up

LD 16, House – Possible R pick-up

LD 17, Senate – Possible D pick-up

LD 17, House – Possible D pick-up

LD 23, Senate – Possible R pick-up

We can, however, make some safe assumptions about the ballot measures. Below are the results (as of 9 p.m.), which we can largely expect to hold.

The next batch is expected to drop any minute, which will likely be comprised of “late-early” ballots (mail-in ballots dropped off at the polls on Election Day). Once we’ve had a chance to digest the latest numbers, we will send out another update. Stay tuned.