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If you’re reading this in real time and plan to stay up until we have more concrete results to share, now would be a good time to pour yourself some more coffee. In Arizona, we have more than half the votes left to count, but here’s what we know so far:
We saw our first batch of results at 8 p.m., largely made up of early mail and in-person ballots. Based on those returns, there appears to be very little consistency among voting blocs. As of this evening, Democrats appear to be winning the open Senate seat (Gallego leads Lake by more than 100,000 votes) and are on track to flip two congressional seats from red to blue (Shah is narrowly leading Schweikert in CD 1 and Engel has a healthy lead over Ciscomani in CD 6). The abortion measure (Prop. 139) is winning with 62% of the vote. Yet, Harris is trailing by 13,000+ votes.
Consistent with that theme of incongruity, Democrats further down the ballot appear to be faring well. Several progressive candidates are poised to take seats on the Phoenix City Council, and a handful of close races could mean pick-ups in the Arizona State Legislature (again, this is based on results as of 11:30 p.m. and could change with the next batch of results). Yet, other hotly contested races, including Maricopa County Sheriff and Maricopa County Recorder, are neck and neck.
Results from ballots cast on Election Day will be reported throughout the night, so by sunrise we should have a better idea of how some of these races, particularly the legislative races, are shaping up. From there, we can expect ballot drops every evening until all precincts have reported.
For those wondering why Arizona – one of the seven key swing states – could be among the slowest to produce results, there are several reasons:
- Voting by mail is extremely popular in Arizona and has been for more than two decades, with nearly 80% of voters casting their ballot by mail. While election officials in Arizona can begin processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, results cannot be released until one hour after polls close.
- The “late early” votes (any mail ballots dropped off on Election Day) cannot be processed until the polls have closed. These make up for nearly one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County. The more “late earlies” received, the longer it will likely take to count votes and determine tight races.
- A change to state law this year requires counties to hand count ballot envelopes that are dropped off at polling centers on Election Day before the ballots are tabulated—an extra step expected to result in a delay in reporting the county’s results.
- Another possible factor: state lawmakers recently expanded the threshold to trigger an automatic recount. Under the new law, which took effect in 2022, the margin went from one-tenth of one percentage point to half a percentage point (based on certified results).
Keep in mind that a network’s decision to call a race carries absolutely no validity whatsoever, as nothing is official until the Secretary of State, Attorney General and Governor certify the statewide canvass of the 2024 election (this year, the state canvass is scheduled for November 25). While it differs from syndicate to syndicate, most major news outlets, like the Associated Press, typically do not call down-ballot races on election night if the margin is less than 2% between the top two candidates. Local stations, however, have been known to use more lenient guidelines when calling races.
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