Triadvocates Navigator (November 13, 2024)

While we can expect a few more ballot drops to trickle in, nearly all races have been called in Arizona. The “red wave” held through the most recent batches of results, as Republicans maintained their lead in key races up and down the ticket. The glaring exception, of course, being the race for U.S. Senate, which has been called for Gallego (D). Also contrary to the “red wave” narrative is the fact that Arizona’s abortion measure (Prop. 139) passed by a landslide with more than 60% of the vote. As hard as we’ve tried to identify themes or somehow make sense of the numbers, we always come back to the same way of describing this election: absolutely random human behavior. Perhaps with time and a closer assessment of exit polls, we will come to more insightful conclusions but, for now, it remains a mystery. That said, here’s the latest:

U.S. Senate: Ruben Gallego will be Arizona’s first Latino senator. He will replace Democrat-turned-Independent Sinema, who did not seek re-election.

Congressional: The Associated Press has called eight of the nine congressional races in Arizona, with CD 6 still neck-and-neck this afternoon. Ciscomani (R; incumbent) is currently leading Engel by 4,900 votes, although the lead has changed hands multiple times over the past week. Statewide, about 178,000 ballots have yet to be counted. This district covers five counties across southeastern Arizona, making it difficult to predict how many of the remaining ballots will impact this race. Regardless of outcome, Republicans will take the House, solidifying total control of Congress and completing the trifecta.

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors (District 3): As of this afternoon, it appears this race will head to a recount. Brophy McGee (R) currently leads Valenzuela (D) by 556, however, state law requires an automatic recount if the margin of victory is 0.5% or less. The recount can’t happen until county officials have certified election results, which we can expect to happen within the next two weeks. The outcome of the race will determine whether Democrats pick up a seat on the Board, which has been controlled by Republicans for the vast majority of its history. Considered the most influential regulatory body at the county level, the BOS has a range of responsibilities and oversight duties, including transportation, elections, land use and zoning, public safety, housing and public health.

At the state level, Republicans will maintain control of both chambers. They’ll pick up two seats in the House (now a 33-27 split) and one seat in the Senate, (now a 17-13 split). Of all 60 races, only one remains too close to call. In LD 2, we know Democrats will keep one of the two House seats. However, the incumbent Republican (Wilmeth) only leads the other GOP challenger by 137 votes. So, we know the second House seat will go to a Republican, we’re just not sure which one.

This afternoon, Republicans and Democrats in both chambers met to select new caucus leaders. These votes are held anonymously and behind closed doors, the outcome of which is often as consequential as the election itself. Legislative leadership directly impacts the policy agendas, potential staffing changes, committee assignments, budget negotiations and, ultimately, the timeline for session. The following leadership teams will assume the new roles in January:

Senate Leadership

President: Warren Petersen (LD 14, Gilbert) – Current Senate President will maintain his role.

Majority Leader: Janae Shamp (LD 29, Surprise)

Majority Whip: Frank Carroll (LD 28, Glendale)

Minority Leader: Priya Sundareshan (LD 18, Tucson)

Assistant Minority Leader: Flavio Bravo (LD 26, Phoenix)

Minority Whip: Rosanna Gabaldón (LD 21, Tucson/Nogales)

Caucus Chair: Lela Alston (LD 5, Phoenix) – Current Caucus Chair will maintain her role.

House Leadership

Speaker: Steve Montenegro (LD 29, Surprise)

Majority Leader: Michael Carbone (LD 25, Buckeye)

Majority Whip: Julie Willoughby (LD 13, Chandler)

Minority Leader: Oscar De Los Santos (LD 11, Phoenix)

Assistant Minority Leader: Nancy Gutierrez (LD 18, Tucson)

Minority Co-Whip: Quantá Crews (LD 26, Phoenix)

Minority Co-Whip: Stacey Travers (LD 12, Tempe)

This concludes our real-time election updates. Thanks for following along—hope you’ve found these to be helpful. For those closely tracking races, we’ve put together a spreadsheet that lists all candidates, identifies winners and includes district vote spread.

Keep an eye out for updates regarding legislative committee assignments in the coming weeks as we gear up for the new legislative session in January.