Triadvocates Navigator (November 11, 2024)

It has been nearly a week since polls closed and, while the Secretary of State’s Office estimates a remaining 270,000 ballots have yet to be counted, we have a generally good idea of what the federal, state and local landscape will look like in January. To sum it up in one word, it’s red.

Trump will take Arizona, completing a sweep of all seven battleground states (he leads Harris by more than 179,000 votes). And Republicans appear to have clinched five, possibly six, of the nine congressional seats, every open seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission (which regulates the state’s water and power utilities as well as some railroad activities), most offices in Maricopa County, and the majority of state legislative seats.

Mysteriously bucking the trend of our so-called “red wave” is the race for U.S. Senate. Gallego leads Lake by just shy of 70,000 votes. While one national number cruncher has called the race for Gallego, there is still a small, incredibly unlikely but technically possible, path to victory for Lake. Maricopa and Pima – the two most populous counties in Arizona – make up the bulk of the remaining ballots; Gallego has been performing well in both. Regardless of the outcome, Republicans will take control of the Senate.

What appeared to be a neck-and-neck race in CD 1 on Election Night has since widened, with Republican incumbent Schweikert now leading Shah by more than 16,000 votes. CD 6, however, remains too close to call. Republican incumbent Ciscomani narrowly leads Engel by roughly 2,000 votes, although remaining ballots in Pima County traditionally lean blue.

For those tracking state legislative races, all eyes have been on the seven swing districts. Democrats went into this election with high hopes of flipping a chamber, however, once results started rolling in, it became clear they were fighting just to keep current party ratios (31-29 in the House and 16-14 in the Senate, with GOP control in both). As of this afternoon, it looks like Republicans will pick up several more seats in the House (a possible 34-26 split) and either pick up a seat or maintain status quo in the Senate. Here’s where things stand:

• LD 2, Senate – Bolick (R) leads Schwiebert (D) by 3,734 (Rs will keep this seat)
• LD 2, House – Possible R pick-up – Simacek (D) leads with 46,400 while Wilmeth (R; incumbent) and Bradshaw (R) battle for the second House seat with 45,687 and 45,532 votes, respectively (Ds will likely keep one of the two seats)
• FLIP – LD 4, Senate – Werner leads by more than 5,000 votes; Marsh has conceded (Rs will pick up this seat)
• FLIP – LD 4, House – Gress (R; incumbent) will keep his seat and Carter (R) will likely pick up the second seat, as she leads Butler by 2,393 (Rs will likely pick up this seat)
• LD 9, Senate – Burch (D; incumbent) leads Scantlebury by 2,300+ (Ds will likely keep this seat)
• LD 9, House – Possible R pick-up – Austin (D; incumbent) will easily keep her seat, however Blattman (D; incumbent) is hanging on to his by only 678 over Barber (R) as of Monday morning (too close to call; still a possible R pick-up)
• LD 13, Senate – Mesnard (R; incumbent) leads Winters by 7,000+ (Rs will keep this seat)
• FLIP – LD 13, House – Weninger (R) and Willoughby (R; incumbent) will take the two House seats with 55,816 and 55,267 votes, respectively, while Reese trails with 51, 107 (Rs will pick up the second House seat previously held by Pawlik [D] who did not seek reelection)
• FLIP – LD 16, House – Martinez (R; incumbent) will easily keep her seat and will likely be joined by Lopez (R), who leads Seaman (D; incumbent) by 3,578 (Rs will pick up this seat)
• LD 17, Senate – Possible D pick-up – Leach (R) and McLean (D) are neck and neck, with Leach currently up by 304 (too close to call; still a possible D pick-up)
• FLIP – LD 17, House – Volk (D) easily will take one seat while Jones (R; incumbent) is expected to take the other, as she leads her seatmate McGarr (R; incumbent) by 2,300+ votes (Ds will pick up this seat)
• LD 23, Senate – Fernandez (D; incumbent) will likely keep his seat, as he leads Altherr (R) by 2,000+ (Ds will likely keep this seat)