August 1, 2024

Andrei Cherny has conceded to Amish Shah in the Democratic race for Congressional District 1. Shah will now face incumbent Republican David Schweikert in November. A highly competitive district, Democrats view this as a potential pickup.

Election officials are still tabulating a mix of any remaining mail-ins along with early ballots that were dropped off on Election Day. As of this afternoon, there are roughly 100,000 outstanding ballots in Maricopa County. Updated numbers from counties across the state boost total voter turnout to 1,117,207, or 27.19% (although that will slightly change as final ballots are counted).

As we get closer to the final results, some key themes have emerged:

Primary turnout was subpar.

It sure felt like you couldn’t watch the news or check your phone without getting hit with a political ad or campaign text. Yet, at only 27.19%, we saw lower turnout for the primary this year than we saw for the primaries in 2022 (34.92%) and 2020 (36.44%). One possible explanation is the fact that Arizona moved the primary date from August 6, as originally planned, to July 30. State lawmakers made the change last session to ensure election officials were able to submit presidential results to Congress in time. Because many schools don’t start until the second week of August, many folks flee the state until the end of July to escape the heat as long as possible.

Trump still holds sway…sort of.

Trump loyalist Kari Lake handily beat Mark Lamb in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, but not by nearly enough to show she’s a strong GOP contender for the general election. Despite her widespread name ID and having significantly outspent her opponent, she only nabbed 55% of the vote. The question remains whether she will be able to unite Republicans and defeat Democrat Ruben Gallego in November. Of course, all eyes are on this race, as it could determine control of the chamber. Other MAGA candidates fared well, including Mark Finchem (who defeated incumbent Ken Bennett for the state Senate seat in LD 1), Wendy Rogers (who defeated David Cook for the state Senate seat in LD 7), Mark Stewart (who ousted longtime incumbent Jack Sellers for a seat in District 1 on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors), and Justin Heap (who defeated incumbent Stephen Richer for Maricopa County Recorder). Notably, Bennett, Sellers and Richer have all been very vocal in defending election integrity, which has, at times, thrust them into the national spotlight. But Trump loyalists did not necessarily take a clean sweep. Incumbent Tom Galvin handily beat former state lawmaker and MAGA opponent Michelle Ugenti-Rita in the race for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors seat in District 2, while Kate Brophy McGee easily defeated MAGA opponent Tabatha Lavoie Cuellar for the seat in District 3).

Local races stole the show.

While focus has traditionally been on federal, state and legislative races, a handful of local races garnered quite a bit of attention. In particular, the five-way, nonpartisan mayoral race in the City of Mesa is front and center. Former Mayor (and gubernatorial candidate) Scott Smith is narrowly beating current Councilmember Mark Freeman by just 481 votes, however, they’ll face off again in November as the close margin will trigger a run-off. In the City of Scottsdale, current Mayor David Ortega has a 1,200-vote lead over former Councilmember Lisa Borowsky. This race will also likely head to a run-off in the general election. At the county level, a number of races in Maricopa County are considered among the most important on the ballot in terms of potential impact from this election. Races include County Attorney, County Sheriff, County Recorder and all five seats on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors

While the vast majority of state legislative races were decided in the primary, a handful of highly competitive districts are potentially up for grabs in November—and could determine control of the chamber. Notable primary wins to watch come the general election:

Legislative District 2

House: Ari Bradshaw and incumbent Justin Wilmeth will face Democratic challenger Stephanie Simacek.

Senate: Incumbent Republican Shawnna Bolick will face Democratic challenger Judy Schwiebert. Both are currently serving in LD 2, although Schwiebert is now seeking the Senate seat.

Legislative District 4

House: Incumbent Matt Gress and Pamela Carter will face Democratic challengers Kelli Butler (former lawmaker) and Karen Gresham, who are running as a slate alongside Christine Marsh.

Senate: Incumbent Christine Marsh will face Republican challenger Carine Werner.

Legislative District 9

House: Incumbents Seth Blattman and Lorena Austin will face Republican challengers Mary Ann Mendoza and Kylie Barber.

Legislative District 16

House: Either Chris Lopez, a pro-business Republican, or MAGA loyalist Rob Hudelson (a race that remains too close to call) will join incumbent Republican Teresa Martinez in challenging Democratic incumbent Keith Seaman in the general election.

Legislative District 17

Senate: Vince Leach is a pro-business Republican and presents as a much tougher opponent for Democrat John McLean in the general. Leach, a former lawmaker, ousted incumbent Freedom Caucus member Justine Wadsack by a razor-thin margin in the primary. While not every ballot has been counted and verified, the current vote count now puts Leach outside of Wadsack’s reach.

Legislative District 23

House: Matias Rosales looks to challenge Michele Pena for one of two seats in the blue-leaning legislative district.

For those closely following, we’ve updated the spreadsheet to reflect the most recent results. Candidates highlighted in yellow are either uncontested or are likely winners, as margins are wide enough that outstanding votes are extremely unlikely to change the outcome. However, keep in mind that these are speculations based on unofficial results, as there are still votes left to be counted.

Below are the key races that remain too close to call as of this afternoon:

Congressional District 3 (D)

Yassamin Ansari (46.0%)

Raquel Teran (42.9%)

LD 8 – House (D)

Janeen Connolly (34.00%)

Brian Garcia (33.91%)

Juan Mendez (32.08%)

LD 16 – House (R)

Chris Lopez (27.03%)

Rob Hudelson (26.68%)

*Incumbent Teresa Martinez has secured one of the two GOP spots in the general, although it remains too close to call as to who will join her on the ticket as the second Republican.

City of Mesa – Mayor

Scott Smith (29.69%)

Mark Freeman (28.93%)

City of Scottsdale – Mayor

David Ortega (40.7%)

Lisa Borowsky (38.47%)