Triadvocates Navigator: 2022 Election Update (Nov. 15)

November 15,2022 | TRIADVOCATES

November 15, 2022



As of this evening, there are just over 28,000 ballots left to count statewide, 12,200 of which are from Maricopa County.

We know what you’re thinking: “Enough with the stats—just tell us who won already.” Ask and you shall receive. With so few ballots remaining, we can now say that most of the key races have been called (based on the math). Here’s the rundown on top offices:

  • Katie Hobbs will be the next governor of Arizona. (Note: Hobbs currently leads Kari Lake by 17,249 votes. With only 28,000 ballots left to count, Lake would need a statistically improbable percentage of the remaining votes.) She will succeed Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, who was termed out. Hobbs is the first Democrat to be elected governor in Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006 and is the state’s fifth female governor (the most of any state).
  • The next secretary of state will be Adrian Fontes. (Note: Fontes currently leads Mark Finchem by 119,772 votes. It is now statistically impossible for Finchem to win.) Fontes, who previously served as Maricopa county recorder, is the first-ever Hispanic secretary of state in Arizona.
  • Our state treasurer will be Republican incumbent Kimberly Yee, who beat her Democratic challenger Martin Quezada with more than 55% of the vote.
  • The two open seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission went to Republicans Kevin Thompson and Nick Myers, who were the top two vote-getters among the slate of four candidates.
  • On the federal front, Democrat Mark Kelly beat Blake Masters for the U.S. Senate seat with 51.4% of the vote. Congressional races to note are the Republican pick-ups in CD 6 (Juan Ciscomani beat Kristen Engel by just over 4,700 votes) as well as CD 2 (Eli Crane beat Tom O'Halleran by more than 25,000 votes).

A handful of races, however, remain too close to call:

  • For attorney general, Democrat Kris Mayes is currently leading Republican Abe Hamadeh by just 771 votes. Even if she pulls through with the win, it will likely head to a recount.
  • In the race for superintendent of public instruction, Republican Tom Horne is currently leading incumbent Kathy Hoffman by roughly 8,576 votes.

We’ll do a deeper dive into the state legislative races in a future edition, but as of this evening, it’s looking like we’ll have the same ratios: 16 Republicans and 14 Democrats in the Senate, and 31 Republicans and 29 Democrats in the House. Leadership races have been held and committee assignments are underway.

Our hiker is officially in sight of the summit.    



Results as of 6:45 p.m. today

*Denotes incumbent

Federal Races

U.S. Senate:

    *Kelly (D)                    51.4%

    Masters (R)                46.5%

U.S. Congress:

CD 1

    *Schweikert (R)          50.4%

    Hodge (D)                  49.6%


CD 2

    Crane (R)                    54.0%

     *O’Halleran (D)           46.0%


CD 3

    Zink (R)                       23.0%

    *Gallego (D)               77.0%


CD 4

    Cooper (R)                 43.8%

    *Stanton (D)               56.2%


CD 5

    *Biggs (R)                   56.6%

    Ramos (D)                  37.5%


CD 6

    Ciscomani (R)            50.7%

    Engel (D)                    49.3%


CD 7

    Pozzolo (R)                35.4%

    *Grijalva (D)                64.6%


CD 8

     *Lesko (R)                  100%


CD 9

    *Gosar (R)                   100%


Statewide Races


     Lake (R)                    49.6%

    Hobbs (D)                  50.4%


Secretary of State

    Finchem (R)               47.6%

    Fontes (D)                  52.4%


Attorney General                  

    Hamadeh (R)             50.0%

    Mayes (D)                  50.0%



    Yee (R)                       55.7%

    Quezada (D)              44.3%


Superintendent of Public Instruction

    Tom Horne (R)           50.2%

    *Kathy Hoffman (D)   49.8%


State Mine Inspector

    Paul Marsh                100%


Arizona Corporation Commission:

As a refresher, the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) sets rates and policies for electric, gas and water utilities. The five statewide elected officials on the commission also oversee railroad crossings, pipeline safety and securities. Two of those five seats are on the ballot this year.

    Myers (R)                   26.01%

    Thompson (R)           26.02%

    Kennedy (D)              24.78%

    Kuby (D)                     23.20%



State Legislative Races

Arizona Senate:

The current split in the Senate is 16 Republicans and 14 Democrats. These are the races deemed “ones to watch” as they are considered competitive districts:


LD 2


    Kaiser (R)        51.8%

    Casteen (D)    48.2%


LD 4


    Barto (R)        49.5%

    Marsh (D)        50.5%


LD 9


    Scantlebury (R)    47.5%

    Burch (D)                52.5%


LD 13


    Mesnard (R)        51.8%

    Hans (D)                48.2%


LD 16


    *Shope (R)        55.7%

    Kerby (D)            44.3%



Arizona House of Representatives:

The current split in the House is 31 Republicans and 29 Democrats. These are the races deemed “ones to watch” as they are considered competitive districts.

(*Note: Voters select two candidates to represent the district in the House.)


LD 2


    *Schwiebert (D)    35.18%

    *Wilmeth (R)         33.29%

    Lamar (R)             31.53%


LD 4


    Terech (D)             33.48%

    Gress (R)                34.71%

    Syms (R)                31.81%


LD 9


    Blattman (D)        25.20%

    Austin (D)            26.53%

    Mendoza (R)        23.77%

    Pearce (R)            24.50%


LD 13


    *Pawlik (D)            35.03%

    Harris (R)                32.58%

    Willoughby (R)     32.39%

 Harris currently leads Willoughby by 257 votes.


LD 16


    Seaman (D)             32.08%

    *Martinez (R)            36.42%

    Hudelson (R)            31.51%



Ballot Propositions

In addition to races for Governor and U.S. Senate all the way down to local school board members, Arizona voters will decide 10 propositions.

 Proposition 128: Legislature initiative and referendum

If passed, would amend the constitution to allow the state legislature to amend, divert funds from, or supersede an initiative or referendum measure enacted by the people of Arizona if the measure is found to contain illegal or unconstitutional language by the Arizona or United States Supreme Court. (If rejected, would retain existing law on the state legislature’s ability to amend, divert funds from, or supersede an initiative or referendum measure.)

    YES    36.36%

    NO     63.64%


Proposition 129: Legislature initiative measures

If passed, would amend the constitution to limit each initiative measure to a single subject and require that subject to be expressed in the title of the initiative measure. (If rejected, would retain existing law on initiative measures.)

    YES    55.23%

    NO     44.77%


Proposition 130: Property tax exemptions

If passed, would amend the constitution to consolidate property tax exemptions into a single section; removing the constitutional determinations as to the amounts of certain property tax exemptions, leaving the legislature to prescribe by law the qualifications for and amounts of property tax exemptions it creates; allowing property tax exemptions for resident veterans with disabilities, widows, and widowers regardless of when they became Arizona residents; and establishing that a person is not eligible for property tax exemption under more than one category as a widow, widower, person with a disability, or veteran with a disability. (If rejected, would retain existing law on property tax exemptions.)

    YES    63.78%

    NO     36.22% 


Proposition 131: New executive officer position

If passed, would amend the constitution to create the office of Lieutenant Governor beginning with the 2026 election; requiring that a nominee for Governor name a nominee for Lieutenant Governor to be jointly elected; replacing the Secretary of State with the Lieutenant Governor as first in the line of succession to the office of Governor; and provide that the Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Attorney General, and Superintendent of Public Instruction may succeed to the office of Governor regardless of whether they were elected. (If rejected, would retain the current executive branch and existing law on executive succession.)

    YES    55.19%

    NO     44.81%


Proposition 132: Legislature initiative and referendum measures

If passed, would amend the constitution to require at least sixty percent of votes cast to approve an initiative or referendum that enacts a tax. (If rejected, would retain existing law on initiative and referendum measures.)

    YES    50.70%

    NO     49.30%


Proposition 209: Predatory debt collection protection

If passed, would reduce maximum interest rates on medical debt from ten percent to no more than three percent per year; increasing exemptions from all debt collection for certain personal assets, including a debtor’s home, household items, motor vehicle, and bank account from debt collection; adjusting exemptions from all debt collection for inflation beginning in 2024; decreasing the amount of disposable earnings subject to garnishment to no more than ten percent of disposable earnings but allowing a court to decrease the disposable earnings subject to garnishment to five percent based on extreme economic hardship. (If rejected, would retain existing laws related to debt collection.)

    YES    72.01%

    NO     27.99%


Proposition 211: Money used for political campaign media spending

If passed, would require additional disclosures and reporting by entities and persons whose campaign media spending and/or in-kind contributions for campaign media spending exceeds $50,000 in statewide campaigns or $25,000 in other campaigns, including identifying original donors of contributions of more than $5,000 in aggregate; creating penalties for violations of the law; and allowing the Citizens Clean Elections Commission to adopt rules and enforce the provisions of the law. (If rejected, would retain existing law on campaign finance reporting requirements.)

    YES    72.37%

     NO     27.63%


Proposition 308: Classification of students for tuition purposes

If passed, would allow any Arizona student, regardless of immigration status, to be eligible for in-state tuition at state universities and community colleges if they graduated from, and spent at least two years attending, an Arizona public or private high school, or homeschool equivalent; allowing any Arizona student, regardless of immigration status, to be eligible for state financial aid at state universities and community colleges. (If rejected, would retain the current law on university and community college tuition.)

    YES    51.23%

    NO     48.77%


Proposition 309: Voter identification

If passed, would require the affidavit accompanying an early ballot and return envelope to be capable of being concealed when returned; requiring a voter to write their birth date, a state-issued identification number or the last four digits of the voter’s social security number, and signature on an early ballot affidavit; requiring certain photo identification issued by the State of Arizona, or a tribal government or the United States government, to receive a ballot at an in-person voting location; removing the ability to receive a ballot at an in-person voting location without photo identification when showing two other identifying documents; and requiring the Arizona Department of Transportation to provide, without charge, a nonoperating identification license to individuals who request one for the purpose of voting. (If rejected, would retain existing law on early ballot affidavits and voter identification.)

     YES    49.58%

    NO     50.42%

The NO vote is currently leading by 20,321.


Proposition 310: Taxation benefitting fire districts

If passed, would establish a Fire District Safety Fund; increasing the Transaction Privilege (Sales) and Use Tax by one-tenth of one percent from January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2042 to pay for the Fund; and distributing monies from the Fund to fire districts on a monthly basis. (If rejected, would retain existing law on tax rates and funding for fire districts.)

    YES    48.18%

    NO     51.82%


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